Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
