Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
